Yes. In several GTA markets right now, a brand-new house costs $109,000 to $200,000 less than a comparable resale home in the same area. Single-family starts and completions have fallen to roughly a 40-year low, builders are discounting to move inventory, and Ontario's Enhanced HST Rebate removes up to $130,000 of tax on agreements signed before March 31, 2027. Add a Tarion warranty and freedom from rent control on post-2018 units, and new is the better value for many buyers today.
I have been selling GTA real estate for more than 20 years, and for almost all of that time new construction carried a premium. You paid extra for the finishes, the warranty and the right to be first. That rule has flipped. In this video I walk through four like-for-like comparisons where the new house is the cheaper house, and I explain the four forces behind it.
Four things are happening at the same time. Any one of them would soften new home pricing. Together, they have pushed net builder prices below the resale market in parts of York, Durham and Peel.
The data behind this is not subtle. According to BILD and Altus Group, the GTA sold just 5,314 new homes in 2025, the lowest annual total in 45 years of records. Single-family new home sales came in at 3,247, about 63% below the 10-year average. CMHC reported that single-detached, semi-detached and row starts in Ontario hit a record low in January 2026.
As I explain in the video, sales today become starts tomorrow and completions the year after. When builders cannot presell, they cannot get construction financing, and when they cannot get financing, nothing new breaks ground. That leaves builders holding finished and near-finished inventory with land costs and loans running every month. Unlike a resale seller who bought in 2022 and refuses to sell below their purchase price, a builder has to move units. So they cut prices, cap closing costs and stack incentives.
The second half of that story matters just as much. Fewer starts in 2025 and 2026 mean far fewer completed houses in 2028 to 2030. Buyers who act during the supply collapse are buying at the bottom of the builder pricing cycle, before that shortage shows up in prices.
In the video I compare four new projects against the median resale price for the same product type in the same area. These are net builder prices after incentives and applicable HST relief, not list prices.
Builder pricing and incentives change often. Figures reflect pricing at the time of the video. Confirm current numbers with our team before you make a decision.
A 4-bedroom detached at Queens Landing nets about $950,000 against a $1.15 million resale median. That is roughly $200,000 less for a home with new mechanicals, a new roof, current building code and a Tarion warranty. On a resale at that price, you would often budget another $50,000 to $100,000 for updates in the first five years.
Trails of Whitevale offers a 2,103 sq ft detached for under $890,000, compared with a $1.05 million resale median. That is detached living in Durham Region at a price many buyers associate with a resale semi.
The 9 townhouses net about $685,000 against an $820,000 resale median. For a first-time buyer in Peel, a $135,000 difference can decide whether you qualify at all. At 20% down, it lowers the required down payment by $27,000.
Everpine townhomes net about $899,000 against a $1.008million resale median.Sub-$900,000 freehold options in Richmond Hill are rare, which makes this one of the more meaningful entry points in York Region.
Resale homes carry no HST. New homes always have, and that tax is the single biggest reason new construction used to cost more. The Enhanced HST Rebate removes it for one year.
On March 25, 2026, Ontario announced, with federal cost-sharing, a temporary expansion of HST relief on new homes. It applies to all buyers, not only first-time buyers, and includes qualifying rental properties.
On a $950,000 new detached in Holland Landing, 13% HST is $123,500. Under the old rules, a repeat buyer would have recovered only a small portion of that. Under the enhanced program, eligible buyers recover all of it. That single change accounts for most of the gap between new and resale in the table above.
Two cautions. First, check how your builder's price is quoted: "HST included, rebate assigned to builder" means the builder collects the rebate and the net price already reflects it. Second, the program depends on federal regulations, and CRA administers the rebate. Have your real estate lawyer confirm eligibility before you sign, and make sure the agreement says what happens if the rebate is denied.
This is the advantage most buyers overlook, and it is one I spend real time on in the video. In Ontario, any residential unit first occupied after November 15, 2018 is exempt from the annual rent increase guideline. Older units are capped at the guideline, which is 2.1% for 2026.
Why this matters even if you plan to live in the home: life changes. A job transfer, a growing family or a move-up purchase can turn your home into a rental. With a post-2018 house, your rent can track the market. With an older house, a long-term tenant can sit years below market while your costs rise.
The exemption does not remove tenant protections. You still follow the Residential Tenancies Act, including the 12-month rule, proper N1 notice and the rules for ending a tenancy.
Every new freehold home in Ontario comes with statutory warranty coverage backed by Tarion. A resale home is sold as is, and your only protection is a home inspection and whatever the seller discloses.
Tarion also protects your money before you move in:
Put a number on it. A furnace or HVAC replacement runs $8,000 to $15,000. A failed basement waterproofing job can cost $15,000 to $30,000. On a resale home, those are your problem on day one. On a new home, they are the builder's problem for up to two years, and structural issues for seven.
I have been through every GTA cycle since the early 2000s, and I have not seen new houses priced below resale like this before. It will not last. The HST rebate ends for agreements signed after March 31, 2027. The supply collapse that is forcing builders to discount today is the same collapse that will leave the GTA short on new single-family homes in 2028 to 2030. When that shortage arrives, builders will stop discounting.
That does not make every new home a good deal. Some builders are discounting because the product or location is weak. My advice is the same one I give clients in our office: get the net price in writing, compare it against real sold comparables, and have the agreement reviewed line by line before you sign.
In several GTA markets, yes. After builder incentives and the Enhanced HST Rebate, new homes in Holland Landing, Pickering, Mississauga and Richmond Hill are netting roughly $109,000 to $200,000 below median resale prices for comparable homes.
Eligible buyers can receive the full 13% HST on new homes up to $1 million, to a maximum of $130,000. The $130,000 maximum holds up to $1.5 million, then reduces gradually to $24,000 above $1.85 million. The agreement must be signed between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027.
Yes. The enhanced program applies to all buyers of qualifying new homes used as a primary residence or as a residential rental property, not only first-time buyers.
New home sales and single-family starts have fallen to multi-decade lows. BILD and Altus Group reported 5,314 GTA new home sales in 2025, the lowest in 45 years, with single-family sales about 63% below the 10-year average. Builders are discounting to move inventory.
Units first occupied for residential purposes after November 15, 2018 are exempt from the annual rent increase guideline. Increases are still limited to once every 12 months with 90 days' written notice.
Tarion coverage includes a 1-year warranty on work and materials, a 2-year warranty on water penetration and electrical, plumbing and heating systems, and a 7-year warranty on major structural defects. Freehold deposits are protected up to $100,000.
Thinking about buying new in the GTA? Reach out anytime at ryan@connect.ca, or send your details through this form and we'll get back to you.
Ryan Coyle is a Toronto real estate broker specializing in luxury condos, pre-construction investment, and vacation homes in the Dominican Republic and Mexico.
