Over the past 20 years, Toronto detached houses gained more in dollar value than condos, but the buyer who earned the highest return was the one who bought a condo first and used that equity to buy a house later. A 2006 condo buyer with a $48,000 down payment saw roughly an 8x return on their cash, while the buyer who waited 10 years to save for a house watched the price double before they could get in.
The house vs. condo debate usually gets framed as one or the other. The data says that is the wrong question. The real question is when you get on the ladder, and how you use leverage once you are on it.
In 2006, the condo required $37,000 less cash to get in the door. That gap matters more than any appreciation rate, as you will see below.
Twenty years in Toronto real estate was not one straight line. It was four distinct laps, and each property type won at different times.
The global financial crisis hit in late 2008. Toronto prices dipped for a few months, then recovered faster than almost any market in North America. Both houses and condos were back above pre-crash levels by 2010. Lesson: owners who held through the panic lost nothing. Owners who sold in the panic locked in losses.
This was the detached house run. Low interest rates, limited land supply, and strong immigration pushed detached prices sharply higher. Condos grew more slowly because of a wave of new condo supply and tighter mortgage rules. If you only looked at this lap, houses won by a wide margin.
After Ontario's Fair Housing Plan in April 2017, detached prices pulled back while condos surged. Buyers priced out of houses moved into condos, and condos posted their strongest relative gains of the 20-year period. The gap narrowed significantly.
Both property types spiked in 2021 to early 2022 on record-low rates, then fell as the Bank of Canada raised rates aggressively. Detached homes held their value better. Condos took the bigger hit, with oversupply from investor completions and softer rents pressuring prices through 2024 to 2026.
On price alone, houses edged out condos. But price appreciation is not the same as return on your money.
Buyer A wanted a detached house in 2006 and decided to save the full 20% down payment first. They needed $85,000.
By the time they had saved it, the target had moved. Between 2006 and 2016, detached prices roughly doubled. The $425,000 house was now around $850,000, and the required down payment had grown to about $170,000. Every year of saving was outpaced by price growth. Waiting cost Buyer A ten years and roughly double the entry price.
Buyer B bought a $240,000 condo in 2006 with $48,000 down. Their tenant (or their own housing savings) paid down the mortgage while the condo appreciated.
Here is the leverage math:
The property only grew about 2.6x. Buyer B's cash grew 8x, because they controlled a $240,000 asset with $48,000. That is leverage.
The smartest version of Buyer B did not wait 20 years. Around 2016, their condo was worth roughly $420,000 with about $150,000 left on the mortgage. That is roughly $270,000 in equity, more than enough for a 20% down payment on an $850,000 house.
Buyer B moved up the ladder in 2016, using equity they never had to save from their paycheque. Buyer A was still trying to save $170,000 in a GIC.
Detached houses appreciated slightly more in percentage terms, roughly 2.8x versus 2.6x for condos from 2006 to 2026, based on the figures used in this analysis.
The ladder strategy means buying the property you can afford now, usually a condo, building equity through appreciation and mortgage paydown, then using that equity as a down payment on a larger home later.
Historically, no. Between 2006 and 2016, detached prices roughly doubled, so buyers saving for a 20% down payment saw their target grow faster than their savings.
A buyer who put $48,000 down on a $240,000 condo in 2006 gained roughly $384,000 in value by 2026, about an 8x return on the original cash invested.
Condo prices are below their 2022 peak, which lowers the entry cost. They work best for buyers with a long hold horizon and a clear plan for the next step up.
The post-2022 rate hike period, when rising borrowing costs and record condo completions pushed prices down, especially for investor-owned units.
If you're thinking through this for your own situation, I'm happy to walk you through the numbers. Reach out anytime at ryan@connect.ca, or send your details through this form and we'll get back to you.
About Ryan Coyle
Ryan Coyle is a Toronto real estate broker and investor with more than 20 years in the industry and over $2 billion in real estate transactions. He personally holds a portfolio of 40+ doors and helps buyers, sellers, and investors build long-term wealth through Toronto real estate. Ryan leads Connect, a full-service GTA brokerage focused on the downtown core and north Toronto's luxury market. Learn more at connect.ca.
